Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.183847 0.219670 0.262298 0.317249 0.386913 0.473239 0.589805
2025-06-15 0.137713 0.179360 0.234584 0.314794 0.431114 0.598251 0.865417
2025-06-22 0.107335 0.150148 0.212359 0.312722 0.477419 0.750432 1.269309
2025-06-29 0.082250 0.121998 0.184336 0.294450 0.496366 0.879262 1.744398
2025-07-06 0.057273 0.088318 0.139572 0.235962 0.427280 0.828134 1.865072
2025-07-13 0.047347 0.076533 0.127853 0.232286 0.461978 1.012481 2.739472
2025-07-20 0.040919 0.069260 0.122309 0.239294 0.526040 1.323439 4.469196
2025-07-27 0.036175 0.063979 0.119266 0.251328 0.613283 1.795952 7.910441
2025-08-03 0.031869 0.058605 0.114737 0.259086 0.699382 2.392433 14.213735
2025-08-10 0.027470 0.052127 0.106243 0.254250 0.749324 2.956134 23.782559
2025-08-17 0.023469 0.045694 0.096291 0.242043 0.770131 3.461754 37.809790
2025-08-24 0.020977 0.042045 0.092055 0.245070 0.855092 4.534854 76.451270
2025-08-31 0.018696 0.038618 0.088022 0.249257 0.963718 6.215548 190.644776
2025-09-07 0.016876 0.035907 0.085200 0.256987 1.107920 8.926013 630.075469
2025-09-14 0.015266 0.033383 0.082257 0.263609 1.266770 12.960199 2955.549568
2025-09-21 0.013468 0.030046 0.076131 0.255377 1.335484 16.680018 14757.342959
2025-09-28 0.010989 0.024567 0.062425 0.210387 1.109948 14.164775 14974.670830
2025-10-05 0.009993 0.022801 0.059630 0.210843 1.219259 19.643839 301483.192457
2025-10-12 0.009320 0.021767 0.058863 0.220281 1.425191 31.292226 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008791 0.021032 0.058885 0.234038 1.713820 54.910287 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008234 0.020117 0.058078 0.243675 2.003491 95.289728 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007556 0.018736 0.055289 0.241267 2.163572 142.826583 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006859 0.017189 0.051535 0.231460 2.215586 191.134752 NaN